Kansas City Chiefs vs Non-Conference Opponent Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Kansas City Chiefs in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs non-conference opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs are just 17-24-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -20.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +20.8%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2015 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2017 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2018 | 3-5-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2019 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2021 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2022 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2023 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 4-3-0 | 0.0% | +9.1% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Chiefs' struggles against non-conference opponents stem from fundamental preparation and motivation challenges that plague many successful franchises. Kansas City has built its identity around dominating the AFC West and conference rivals, developing game plans and personnel specifically tailored to familiar divisional matchups. When facing NFC teams they encounter perhaps once every four years, the coaching staff lacks the deep scouting familiarity that gives them edges in conference play. Andy Reid's system thrives on exploiting known weaknesses and tendencies, but against unfamiliar opponents, the Chiefs often default to vanilla approaches that fail to maximize their talent advantages. The psychological element cannot be understated either - players naturally gear up more intensely for conference games that directly impact playoff seeding, while treating interconference matchups as exhibitions despite identical point values. The Chiefs' offensive complexity, which overwhelms familiar opponents, becomes a liability when facing defensive coordinators with fresh eyes and no recent tape to reference. These coordinators can focus entirely on stopping Kansas City's core concepts without worrying about future meetings. This trend carries the most weight during regular season interconference games, particularly early in the season when motivation gaps are widest and preparation time is most limited.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Kansas City Chiefs's ATS record as vs non-conference opponent?
The Kansas City Chiefs have an ATS record of 17-24-0 (41.5%) when facing non-conference opponents from 2014-2024. This means they have failed to cover the spread in 24 of their 41 non-conference games during this period.
Is betting on the Kansas City Chiefs as vs non-conference opponent profitable?
No, betting on the Kansas City Chiefs against non-conference opponents has not been profitable, showing a -20.8% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the Chiefs ATS in these matchups.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Chiefs' 41.5% ATS win rate against non-conference opponents is significantly below the expected 50% break-even rate for profitable betting. This performance is notably poor compared to typical NFL team averages, which generally hover closer to 50%.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.