Kansas City Chiefs Home After 2+ Losses Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Kansas City Chiefs in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home after 2+ losses, the Kansas City Chiefs are just 24-28-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -11.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +11.9%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2017 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2018 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2019 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 3-1-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2021 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2022 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2023 | 5-4-0 | 0.0% | +6.1% |
| 2024 | 5-5-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Chiefs' struggles as home favorites after multiple losses stem from a dangerous combination of public perception and organizational culture. Kansas City's championship pedigree creates inflated expectations from both bettors and oddsmakers, leading to lines that don't properly account for underlying issues that caused those consecutive defeats. When a team of the Chiefs' caliber loses multiple games, there are typically systemic problems - whether injuries to key players, defensive breakdowns, or offensive line struggles - that don't magically disappear simply because they return to Arrowhead Stadium. Andy Reid's teams have historically shown resilience, but this creates a false sense of security in bounce-back spots. The Chiefs' high-powered offense can mask defensive vulnerabilities against weaker opponents, leading to wins that don't cover inflated spreads. Additionally, teams facing Kansas City after the Chiefs have suffered multiple losses often arrive with extra motivation and detailed game plans, having studied recent film that exposes exploitable weaknesses. The key insight for bettors is to fade the public narrative around championship-caliber teams "getting right" at home. Look for underlying metrics that suggest the losses weren't fluky. This trend matters most when the Chiefs are laying significant points against divisional opponents who have intimate knowledge of their recent struggles.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Kansas City Chiefs's ATS record as home after 2+ losses?
The Kansas City Chiefs have a 24-28-0 ATS record when playing at home after suffering 2 or more consecutive losses from 2014-2024. This translates to a 46.2% ATS win rate in this specific situation.
Is betting on the Kansas City Chiefs as home after 2+ losses profitable?
No, betting on the Kansas City Chiefs at home after 2+ losses has not been profitable, showing a -11.9% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. The team has failed to cover the spread more often than not in these situations.
How does this compare to the league average?
This 46.2% ATS win rate is below the expected 50% break-even point for spread betting. The -11.9% ROI indicates significantly worse performance than typical league averages for home teams in bounce-back situations.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.