The data suggests caution when backing the Kansas City Chiefs in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the Kansas City Chiefs are just 16-28-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -30.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +30.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record16-28-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size44 games
ROI-30.6%
Units Won-13.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-2-00.0%-36.4%
20150-3-00.0%-100.0%
20160-2-00.0%-100.0%
20171-3-00.0%-52.3%
20183-4-00.0%-18.2%
20191-3-00.0%-52.3%
20202-1-00.0%+27.3%
20212-1-00.0%+27.3%
20220-3-00.0%-100.0%
20235-4-00.0%+6.1%
20241-2-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Chiefs' poor ATS performance as favorites following extended losing streaks reveals a fascinating psychological dynamic that separates elite teams from the rest of the pack. Kansas City's championship pedigree and explosive offensive capabilities create inflated public expectations during bounce-back spots, leading oddsmakers to set lines that overcompensate for their talent level. When a team of the Chiefs' caliber hits a rough patch, the betting market assumes they'll immediately return to dominant form, but the reality is that even great teams need time to work through systemic issues. The Chiefs' offensive system, built around precision timing and complex route combinations, becomes particularly vulnerable during losing streaks when confidence wavers. Patrick Mahomes' tendency to force throws when trailing compounds this effect, as the team often finds itself in high-pressure situations where their usual rhythm gets disrupted. The public's unwavering faith in Kansas City creates consistent line value on their opponents, who benefit from getting extra points against a team still working through its problems. This trend carries the most weight when the Chiefs are laying significant points at home following a three-game skid, where public perception and home field advantage combine to create the most inflated spreads.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Kansas City Chiefs's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?

The Kansas City Chiefs have a 16-28-0 ATS record as favorites after a 3+ game losing streak from 2014-2024. This translates to a 36.4% ATS win rate in these situations.

Is betting on the Kansas City Chiefs as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?

No, betting on the Kansas City Chiefs as favorites after a 3+ game losing streak is not profitable. This strategy shows a -30.6% ROI, meaning bettors would lose approximately 31 cents for every dollar wagered.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average, as NFL favorites typically cover around 50% of the time. The Chiefs' 36.4% ATS rate in this situation represents substantial underperformance compared to standard expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.