Jacksonville Jaguars Home vs Division Rival Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Jacksonville Jaguars in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Jacksonville Jaguars are just 6-7-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -11.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +11.9%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2017 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2018 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2020 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Jaguars' underwhelming home performance against division rivals stems from the inherent intensity and familiarity that comes with AFC South matchups. Division opponents know Jacksonville's tendencies intimately, having studied their offensive schemes and defensive weaknesses twice yearly. This familiarity often neutralizes any home-field advantage TIAA Bank Field might provide, as visiting teams arrive with detailed game plans specifically tailored to exploit Jacksonville's consistent vulnerabilities. Jacksonville's recent organizational instability has also played a crucial role in these disappointing home showings. Frequent coaching changes and quarterback uncertainty have created an environment where the team struggles to establish consistent identity or rhythm, particularly in high-stakes divisional games where execution matters most. Division rivals often enter these contests with superior preparation and clearer strategic focus, making them dangerous regardless of venue. The psychological pressure of playing at home against familiar foes appears to affect Jacksonville differently than neutral opponents. Division games carry playoff implications and bragging rights that can create additional tension, potentially leading to overthinking and conservative play-calling that fails to maximize home-field energy. This trend becomes most significant during late-season divisional matchups when playoff positioning is at stake and the Jaguars face maximum pressure to perform.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Jacksonville Jaguars's ATS record as home vs division rival?
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 6-7-0 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This represents a 46.2% ATS win rate over 13 games.
Is betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars as home vs division rival profitable?
No, betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars at home vs division rivals has not been profitable, with a -11.9% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the Jaguars in these situations.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Jaguars' 46.2% ATS win rate at home vs division rivals is below the typical 50% expectation for spread betting. Their -11.9% ROI is significantly worse than break-even performance, indicating poor value compared to league standards.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.