Jacksonville Jaguars Home Favorite Betting Trend

The Jaguars' struggles as home favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and organizational reality. Jacksonville has historically been a franchise built on defensive identity rather than offensive consistency, making them vulnerable when oddsmakers expect them to control games and cover spreads. When installed as favorites, the market assumes they can dictate tempo and maintain leads, but their offensive limitations often surface under pressure. The psychological burden of favoritism particularly impacts a franchise with Jacksonville's inconsistent track record. Players and coaching staff feel the weight of expectations differently when they're supposed to win, leading to conservative game management that fails to build comfortable margins. This manifests in close games where the Jaguars win but don't cover, or worse, collapse entirely when opponents adjust their game plans. Jacksonville's home field advantage at TIAA Bank Field has never been particularly intimidating compared to other NFL venues, neutralizing one key component that typically helps favorites. The team's struggles in prime-time and high-expectation spots compound when they're laying points at home. The trend matters most when Jacksonville is favored by more than a field goal at home, particularly against divisional opponents who know their tendencies well.