Indianapolis Colts Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend

The Colts' struggles as large favorites stem from a franchise culture that has historically relied on elite quarterback play to mask underlying roster deficiencies. When Indianapolis enters games as heavy chalk, they're often facing teams perceived as significantly weaker, which can expose their tendency to play down to competition rather than impose their will systematically. This pattern reflects deeper organizational issues around complementary football. The Colts have frequently built teams around passing offense while neglecting run defense and offensive line consistency. Against supposedly inferior opponents, these weaknesses become magnified when the game script doesn't unfold as expected. Teams getting significant points against Indianapolis often stay competitive longer than anticipated, forcing the Colts into uncomfortable situations where their roster holes become apparent. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Indianapolis has shown a propensity for conservative game management when ahead, often shifting away from the aggressive play-calling that made them favorites in the first place. This leads to closer-than-expected finishes against motivated underdogs with nothing to lose. For bettors, this trend suggests fading Indianapolis when they're laying large numbers, particularly in divisional games or against teams with strong rushing attacks. The pattern matters most in prime-time situations where the Colts face additional pressure to validate their favorite status.