The public often underestimates the Indianapolis Colts in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Indianapolis Colts hold a record of 9-7-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +7.4% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $1 over this period.

✅ Profitable
Record9-7-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size16 games
ROI+7.4%
Units Won+1.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20164-0-00.0%+90.9%
20172-1-00.0%+27.3%
20181-1-00.0%-4.5%
20191-0-00.0%+90.9%
20200-2-00.0%-100.0%
20211-0-00.0%+90.9%
20240-2-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Colts' solid performance as home underdogs following wins stems from a combination of psychological resilience and the franchise's historical ability to elevate their play when expectations are low. Indianapolis has consistently demonstrated an uncanny knack for bouncing back from adversity, particularly at Lucas Oil Stadium where crowd energy and familiar surroundings provide crucial momentum shifts. The team's organizational culture, shaped by years under strong leadership, has fostered a mentality where being disrespected by oddsmakers serves as additional motivation rather than pressure. When the Colts enter these spots, they're typically facing superior opponents who may approach the game with overconfidence, especially after Indianapolis just secured a victory that theoretically should have them riding high. The psychological dynamic creates a perfect storm where the home team plays loose and aggressive while visitors potentially overlook what appears to be a "get-right" game. Indianapolis has historically maximized these opportunities through strong defensive game-planning and opportunistic offensive execution. The key insight for bettors is recognizing that Indianapolis thrives in these contrarian spots where public perception doesn't align with their actual capabilities. This trend carries the most weight when the Colts are catching points at home against divisional opponents or teams coming off their own impressive victories.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Indianapolis Colts's ATS record as home underdog after a win?

The Indianapolis Colts have a 9-7-0 ATS record as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This translates to a 56.3% ATS win rate over 16 games.

Is betting on the Indianapolis Colts as home underdog after a win profitable?

Yes, betting on the Colts as home underdogs after a win has been profitable with a 7.4% ROI. Despite the positive ROI, bettors should note this represents a relatively small sample size of 16 games.

How does this compare to the league average?

This trend outperforms typical expectations, as home underdogs generally cover at around 50% league-wide. The Colts' 56.3% ATS rate and positive 7.4% ROI in this specific situation shows above-average performance.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.