The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Texans in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Houston Texans are just 8-17-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -38.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +38.9%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record8-17-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size25 games
ROI-38.9%
Units Won-9.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-1-00.0%-4.5%
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20160-2-00.0%-100.0%
20172-2-00.0%-4.5%
20180-4-00.0%-100.0%
20191-2-00.0%-36.4%
20200-1-00.0%-100.0%
20211-0-00.0%+90.9%
20222-2-00.0%-4.5%
20230-2-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Texans' struggles as road favorites stem from a franchise identity crisis that has plagued them throughout their existence. Houston has historically been built around opportunistic defense and conservative offensive schemes, making them heavily dependent on home field advantages like crowd noise disrupting opposing quarterbacks. When forced to travel as favorites, they lose these environmental crutches while facing opponents with nothing to lose. The psychological burden of expectation weighs particularly heavy on a franchise that has never established consistent winning culture. Road favorites must impose their will in hostile environments, but the Texans often revert to tentative, mistake-prone football when carrying the betting public's money. Their coaching staffs have repeatedly shown poor game management in crucial road spots, particularly in clock management and fourth-down decisions that separate good teams from pretenders. Houston's roster construction compounds these issues, as they've rarely possessed the elite quarterback play necessary to consistently cover spreads away from home. Even during their better seasons, they've relied more on defensive takeaways and field position than explosive offensive capabilities. This trend matters most when Houston is favored by 3.5 points or more on the road, particularly against division rivals who know their tendencies intimately.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Texans's ATS record as away favorite?

The Houston Texans have an 8-17-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 32% of games. This represents a significantly poor performance when favored on the road.

Is betting on the Houston Texans as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Houston Texans as away favorites is not profitable, with a -38.9% ROI over this period. This means bettors would lose approximately 39 cents for every dollar wagered on Houston in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the league average, as most teams cover the spread approximately 50% of the time. The Texans' 32% ATS rate as away favorites represents one of the worst trends in the NFL during this timeframe.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.