The data suggests caution when backing the Green Bay Packers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Green Bay Packers are just 4-13-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -55.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +55.1%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record4-13-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size17 games
ROI-55.1%
Units Won-9.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20151-0-00.0%+90.9%
20160-3-00.0%-100.0%
20170-2-00.0%-100.0%
20181-3-00.0%-52.3%
20190-2-00.0%-100.0%
20200-1-00.0%-100.0%
20220-1-00.0%-100.0%
20231-0-00.0%+90.9%
20241-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Packers' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a perfect storm of psychological and tactical vulnerabilities that compound their disadvantages. Green Bay has historically relied heavily on Aaron Rodgers' ability to elevate the team through pure talent, but this approach becomes problematic when facing the dual pressure of bouncing back from a defeat while being expected to win on hostile territory. The team's offensive system, built around complex timing routes and pre-snap adjustments, often struggles to maintain its precision in loud road environments, particularly when players are pressing to make up for the previous week's disappointment. The franchise's championship expectations create an additional burden when they're installed as favorites after stumbling. Opponents gain extra motivation facing a wounded Packers squad that's supposed to be superior, while Green Bay often plays tight and overthinks situations rather than executing with their usual confidence. The team's tendency to abandon their ground game when trailing has historically made them one-dimensional in these spots, allowing opposing defenses to pin their ears back and rush Rodgers. This trend carries the most weight when Green Bay faces divisional opponents or teams with strong home-field advantages, where the combination of familiarity and crowd noise can exploit their post-loss fragility.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Green Bay Packers's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Green Bay Packers have a 4-13-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a 23.5% cover rate over 17 games.

Is betting on the Green Bay Packers as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Packers as away favorites after a loss has been unprofitable with a -55.1% ROI. This trend shows consistent underperformance against the spread in this specific situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than typical NFL trends, as most teams cover around 50% ATS. The Packers' 23.5% cover rate in this situation is well below league expectations for favorites.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.