The data suggests caution when backing the Green Bay Packers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a loss, the Green Bay Packers are just 20-28-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -20.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +20.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record20-28-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size48 games
ROI-20.4%
Units Won-9.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20151-2-00.0%-36.4%
20162-6-00.0%-52.3%
20171-3-00.0%-52.3%
20182-4-00.0%-36.4%
20193-3-00.0%-4.5%
20203-1-00.0%+43.2%
20211-2-00.0%-36.4%
20223-5-00.0%-28.4%
20231-1-00.0%-4.5%
20243-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Packers' struggles after losses reflect the psychological makeup of a franchise accustomed to sustained success under Aaron Rodgers' leadership. Green Bay has historically been a team that expects to win most games, making losses particularly jarring to their collective psyche. When they do fall short, the organization often overcompensates in preparation and game-planning, leading to tight, conservative performances that fail to cover spreads against motivated opponents. Matt LaFleur's coaching philosophy emphasizes process over results, which can create a disconnect between public expectations and actual performance following defeats. The Packers tend to focus heavily on correcting specific mistakes rather than maintaining their aggressive offensive identity, often resulting in methodical but uninspiring victories that disappoint bettors backing the favorite. This pattern becomes more pronounced when facing division rivals or playoff-caliber teams, as opponents recognize Green Bay's tendency to play not to lose rather than to dominate. Smart bettors should consider fading the Packers as road favorites after losses, particularly when the spread exceeds a field goal. This trend carries the most weight during the middle portion of the season when championship expectations are highest and the psychological pressure to respond perfectly after setbacks reaches its peak.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Green Bay Packers's ATS record as after a loss?

The Green Bay Packers have gone 20-28-0 against the spread after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a 41.7% ATS win rate over 48 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Green Bay Packers as after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Packers after a loss has not been profitable, showing a -20.4% ROI from 2014-2024. This poor performance would have resulted in significant losses for bettors consistently backing Green Bay in bounce-back spots.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Packers' 41.7% ATS win rate after losses is below the league average of approximately 50%. Their -20.4% ROI indicates they consistently fail to meet expectations when trying to bounce back from defeats.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.