Detroit Lions Medium Favorite (-3.5 to -7) Betting Trend

The Lions' struggles as medium favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and execution under pressure. Detroit has historically been a franchise that thrives as an underdog, playing loose and aggressive when expectations are low. When installed as a moderate favorite, the team often faces opponents with nothing to lose while carrying the psychological burden of being expected to win comfortably. This trend reflects Detroit's inconsistent offensive identity in medium-favorite spots. The Lions tend to abandon their ground game too quickly when leading, forcing quarterback Matthew Stafford (and previously other signal-callers) into predictable passing situations. Their defense, while improved in recent years, has shown vulnerability to explosive plays when opponents employ high-risk, high-reward strategies typical of teams facing elimination or desperation scenarios. The coaching staff's game management becomes particularly problematic in these spots, often playing conservatively with leads rather than maintaining the aggressive approach that got them there. Detroit's special teams units have also contributed to late-game collapses through missed field goals or coverage breakdowns at crucial moments. This trend carries the most weight when Detroit faces divisional opponents or teams coming off bye weeks, where preparation advantages can neutralize talent gaps.