The data suggests caution when backing the Detroit Lions in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Detroit Lions are just 9-22-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -44.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +44.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record9-22-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size31 games
ROI-44.6%
Units Won-13.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-4-00.0%-61.8%
20150-1-00.0%-100.0%
20160-2-00.0%-100.0%
20171-1-00.0%-4.5%
20180-2-00.0%-100.0%
20192-3-00.0%-23.6%
20202-2-00.0%-4.5%
20210-2-00.0%-100.0%
20220-2-00.0%-100.0%
20231-1-00.0%-4.5%
20242-2-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Lions' struggles as favorites stem from a franchise-long identity crisis that has historically plagued Detroit's ability to handle expectations. For decades, this organization operated as perpetual underdogs, developing a scrappy mentality that served them well when playing with house money but crumbled under the pressure of being expected to win. The psychological weight of favoritism exposed fundamental weaknesses in game management, late-game execution, and roster construction that weren't apparent when playing spoiler. Detroit's coaching staffs have consistently demonstrated poor situational awareness when protecting leads, often abandoning successful game plans or making conservative decisions that allowed inferior opponents to stay competitive. The franchise's historical lack of playoff success created a culture where players and coaches alike seemed uncomfortable in winning positions, leading to the kind of mental mistakes and blown coverages that turn sure victories into devastating losses. The most actionable insight for bettors is recognizing when Detroit faces teams with strong rushing attacks or experienced quarterbacks, as these matchups historically exploited the Lions' tendency to play not-to-lose rather than to win. This trend matters most when Detroit is favored by less than a touchdown against division rivals or teams with nothing to lose late in the season.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Detroit Lions's ATS record as as favorite?

The Detroit Lions have a 9-22-0 ATS record as favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 29% of games when favored.

Is betting on the Detroit Lions as as favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Detroit Lions as favorites is not profitable, with a -44.6% ROI indicating significant losses over this period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the league average, as NFL favorites typically cover around 50% of the time, while Detroit covers only 29% as favorites.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.