The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Broncos in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs conference opponent, the Denver Broncos are just 18-30-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -28.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +28.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record18-30-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size48 games
ROI-28.4%
Units Won-13.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-1-00.0%-4.5%
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20162-4-00.0%-36.4%
20171-4-00.0%-61.8%
20182-2-00.0%-4.5%
20193-0-00.0%+90.9%
20201-5-00.0%-68.2%
20212-4-00.0%-36.4%
20221-4-00.0%-61.8%
20232-3-00.0%-23.6%
20242-2-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Broncos' struggles against conference opponents stem from a fundamental identity crisis that has plagued the franchise since their Super Bowl 50 victory. Denver's defensive-minded culture, built around elite pass rush and secondary play, becomes predictable against AFC teams that face them twice annually and study their tendencies extensively. Conference opponents understand how to exploit Denver's aggressive defensive schemes, particularly their tendency to bring extra pressure on third downs, leading to big plays when quarterbacks escape the pocket. Denver's offensive inconsistency compounds these issues significantly. The franchise's quarterback carousel since Peyton Manning's retirement has created an offense that lacks the explosive capability to keep pace in high-scoring AFC shootouts. Conference games often feature more familiarity-bred aggression, leading to higher-scoring affairs that expose Denver's limitations in sustained offensive drives. Their running game, while occasionally effective, struggles against conference defenses that have extensive film study advantages. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Denver's players and coaching staff often approach conference games with heightened pressure, knowing these matchups directly impact playoff positioning. This pressure frequently manifests as conservative play-calling in crucial moments. This trend carries the most weight during divisional games and late-season conference matchups where playoff implications amplify the underlying strategic disadvantages.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Broncos's ATS record as vs conference opponent?

The Denver Broncos have an 18-30-0 ATS record when playing against conference opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 37.5% ATS win rate over 48 games.

Is betting on the Denver Broncos as vs conference opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Broncos against conference opponents has not been profitable, with a -28.4% ROI from 2014-2024. This poor performance indicates consistent failure to cover the spread in these matchups.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average ATS win rate of approximately 50%. The Broncos' 37.5% ATS rate against conference opponents represents one of the weaker trends in the NFL over this period.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.