The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Broncos in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small favorite (-1 to -3), the Denver Broncos are just 3-7-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -42.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +42.7%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record3-7-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size10 games
ROI-42.7%
Units Won-4.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20150-1-00.0%-100.0%
20170-1-00.0%-100.0%
20200-3-00.0%-100.0%
20231-1-00.0%-4.5%
20242-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Broncos' struggles as small favorites stem from their tendency to play down to competition rather than asserting dominance when expected to win narrowly. Denver has historically been a franchise that either overwhelms opponents or finds ways to lose close games, leaving little middle ground for the measured victories that small spreads suggest. This pattern reflects deeper organizational issues with game management and mental preparation in spots where they're expected to control games without being overwhelming favorites. Denver's coaching staff has consistently shown difficulty making in-game adjustments when opponents stay competitive, often abandoning successful game plans too early or failing to capitalize on momentum shifts. The franchise's quarterback situation over recent years has amplified this problem, as inconsistent signal-caller play makes it difficult to pull away from supposedly inferior opponents who hang around longer than they should. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Denver players and coaches seem to press when laying small numbers, trying to force big plays instead of methodically building leads. This manifests in poor red zone efficiency and untimely turnovers that keep games closer than the talent differential suggests they should be. Bettors should be most cautious backing Denver as small favorites in divisional games and against teams with strong defensive fronts that can disrupt their offensive rhythm.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Broncos's ATS record as small favorite (-1 to -3)?

The Denver Broncos have a 3-7-0 ATS record as small favorites (-1 to -3 points) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 30% ATS win rate in these situations.

Is betting on the Denver Broncos as small favorite (-1 to -3) profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Broncos as small favorites has not been profitable, showing a -42.7% ROI. Bettors would have lost significant money consistently backing Denver in these spots over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% of their spreads. The Broncos' 30% ATS rate and negative ROI indicate they consistently struggle to cover when lightly favored.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.