Denver Broncos Medium Favorite (-3.5 to -7) Betting Trend

The Broncos' struggles as medium favorites stem from a franchise caught between their championship pedigree and current reality. Denver's organizational culture, built around defensive excellence and methodical offense, often creates inflated public perception when they're favored by a touchdown or less. The betting market remembers their Super Bowl 50 defense and Peyton Manning's leadership, but fails to account for years of quarterback instability and offensive inconsistency that followed. Denver's coaching philosophy under various regimes has emphasized ball control and field position, which works well as underdogs but creates problems when expected to cover meaningful spreads. Their defense-first identity means they rarely blow out opponents even when superior, instead grinding out close victories that fall short of the number. The franchise's national fanbase also inflates betting lines, as casual money pours in on the recognizable brand regardless of current form. The psychological pressure of being favored seems to tighten Denver's typically conservative approach. Rather than playing loose and aggressive, they often revert to risk-averse strategies that keep games closer than their talent suggests they should be. This trend carries most weight in divisional games and nationally televised contests, where public perception and betting volume amplify the line inflation effect.