The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Broncos in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the Denver Broncos are just 14-40-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -50.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +50.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record14-40-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size54 games
ROI-50.5%
Units Won-27.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-3-00.0%-100.0%
20151-3-00.0%-52.3%
20160-5-00.0%-100.0%
20172-8-00.0%-61.8%
20180-1-00.0%-100.0%
20192-0-00.0%+90.9%
20201-6-00.0%-72.7%
20214-4-00.0%-4.5%
20221-4-00.0%-61.8%
20231-5-00.0%-68.2%
20242-1-00.0%+27.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Broncos' struggles as favorites following extended losing streaks stem from a franchise culture that has historically crumbled under pressure rather than rising to meet expectations. Denver's organizational tendency toward conservative play-calling and risk-averse decision-making becomes magnified when they're expected to bounce back, creating a perfect storm of tight execution and pressing for results. The psychological weight of being favored after multiple losses creates an internal contradiction for Denver teams that have consistently shown fragility in high-pressure situations. Players and coaches often overcomplicate game plans, abandoning the aggressive mentality that typically defines successful teams emerging from adversity. This manifests in predictable offensive schemes and defensive alignments that savvy opponents exploit, particularly when those opponents enter as motivated underdogs. Denver's home-field advantage at altitude, typically a significant factor, becomes neutralized in these scenarios as the team's mental state overrides environmental benefits. The franchise's recent quarterback instability has only amplified these issues, as signal-callers lack the veteran presence to steady the ship during crucial moments. Bettors should target Denver opponents in these spots, especially when the Broncos are small favorites of three points or fewer, as the spread often fails to account for the team's historical mental fragility in bounce-back situations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Broncos's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?

The Denver Broncos have a 14-40-0 ATS record as favorites after 3+ game losing streaks from 2014-2024. This represents a 25.9% ATS win rate over 54 games.

Is betting on the Denver Broncos as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Broncos as favorites after 3+ game losing streaks is not profitable. The strategy shows a -50.5% ROI with a 0.0% straight-up win rate over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams perform better than 25.9% ATS when favored. The Broncos have been particularly unreliable in bounce-back spots as favorites during losing streaks.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.