The Dallas Cowboys show mixed results as home underdog after a win. Since 2014, they're 6-6-0 against the spread—a 0.0% win rate with an ROI of -4.5%. While not a strong standalone angle, this data provides valuable context when combined with other factors.

⚖ Neutral
Record6-6-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size12 games
ROI-4.5%
Units Won-0.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-0-00.0%+90.9%
20161-1-00.0%-4.5%
20171-1-00.0%-4.5%
20191-1-00.0%-4.5%
20201-1-00.0%-4.5%
20221-0-00.0%+90.9%
20230-1-00.0%-100.0%
20240-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Cowboys' mediocre performance as home underdogs after wins stems from a dangerous combination of inflated confidence and market overcorrection. Dallas consistently generates massive public betting action, and when they're coming off a victory, casual bettors often ignore the underlying reasons why oddsmakers still favor their opponents at AT&T Stadium. This creates a scenario where the Cowboys enter as underdogs despite recent success, typically because they're facing superior teams or dealing with key injuries that the public overlooks. Jerry Jones' Cowboys have historically struggled with consistency and emotional regulation, particularly when expectations shift rapidly. After a win, the team often displays the overconfidence that has plagued Dallas for decades, leading to flat performances against quality opponents who were rightfully favored despite the venue. The franchise's tendency toward dramatic swings in performance becomes amplified when they're simultaneously riding high from a recent victory while still being disrespected by the betting market. Smart bettors should approach Dallas with extreme caution in this spot, as the team's psychological makeup suggests they're prone to letdown performances when overconfident. This trend becomes most critical when the Cowboys are home underdogs of 3-7 points after defeating divisional opponents.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dallas Cowboys's ATS record as home underdog after a win?

The Dallas Cowboys have gone 6-6-0 against the spread as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This represents a .500 ATS record over 12 games in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Dallas Cowboys as home underdog after a win profitable?

No, betting on the Dallas Cowboys as home underdogs after a win has not been profitable, with a 0.0% win rate and -4.5% ROI. Despite the even ATS record, bettors would have lost money due to juice/vigorish on losing bets.

How does this compare to the league average?

This trend lacks league average comparison data, but a 50% ATS record with negative ROI suggests below-average performance when accounting for betting costs. Most successful betting trends require win rates above 52.4% to overcome standard sportsbook juice.

ANALYZE This Trend

This trend is near break-even. Combine with other factors and compare odds before placing any bets.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.