Dallas Cowboys As Favorite Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Dallas Cowboys in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Dallas Cowboys are just 10-30-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -52.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +52.3%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2015 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2017 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2021 | 3-5-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2022 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2023 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2024 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Cowboys' dismal performance as favorites stems from a toxic combination of organizational culture and market perception that creates consistent value traps for bettors. Dallas operates with an inherent sense of entitlement that manifests as poor preparation against supposedly inferior opponents. This franchise has built its identity around primetime performances and marquee matchups, often treating games against weaker teams as formalities rather than competitive battles requiring full effort. The psychological burden of America's Team expectations compounds this issue. When favored, the Cowboys face inflated spreads driven by their massive fanbase and media coverage rather than actual team strength. Jerry Jones' circus atmosphere creates distractions that become magnified when the team is expected to dominate, leading to unfocused performances that consistently fall short of lofty expectations. Dallas also struggles with in-game adjustments when their initial game plan doesn't produce easy victories. Their coaching staff historically shows poor situational awareness, failing to make necessary tactical changes when facing unexpected resistance from underdogs playing inspired football. The sharpest betting angle emerges when Dallas is favored by more than a touchdown at home during regular season divisional games, where overconfidence peaks and division rivals play with maximum motivation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dallas Cowboys's ATS record as as favorite?
The Dallas Cowboys have a 10-30-0 ATS record as favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 25% of games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances for any team when favored over this time period.
Is betting on the Dallas Cowboys as as favorite profitable?
No, betting on the Dallas Cowboys as favorites has been extremely unprofitable with a -52.3% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost over half their investment backing Dallas when they were favored.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than the league average, where favorites typically cover around 48-52% of the time. The Cowboys' 25% ATS win rate as favorites is well below what would be expected from any NFL team.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.