The data suggests caution when backing the Dallas Cowboys in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Dallas Cowboys are just 3-8-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -47.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +47.9%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record3-8-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size11 games
ROI-47.9%
Units Won-5.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-0-00.0%+90.9%
20150-2-00.0%-100.0%
20170-1-00.0%-100.0%
20180-2-00.0%-100.0%
20211-0-00.0%+90.9%
20221-1-00.0%-4.5%
20240-2-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Cowboys' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a toxic combination of external pressure and internal fragility that has plagued the franchise for years. When Dallas loses a game, the media circus intensifies exponentially compared to other teams, creating a psychological burden that weighs heavily on players who are already dealing with the disappointment of defeat. This amplified scrutiny often leads to overthinking and pressing too hard in the subsequent game, particularly problematic when they're expected to win as favorites. Dallas has historically been a team that feeds off momentum and confidence, traits that become liabilities when they're forced to bounce back on the road. The Cowboys' offensive system under various coordinators has relied heavily on rhythm and timing, elements that become disrupted when players are mentally scattered after a loss. Additionally, their defense has shown a pattern of giving up explosive plays when facing adversity, a tendency that becomes magnified in hostile road environments where communication is already challenging. Smart bettors should consider fading Dallas in these spots, particularly when the spread is inflated due to their brand recognition. This trend carries the most weight when the Cowboys are coming off a divisional loss or a nationally televised defeat, as the media attention reaches peak intensity.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dallas Cowboys's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Dallas Cowboys have a 3-8-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 27.3% ATS win rate in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Dallas Cowboys as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Dallas Cowboys as away favorites after a loss has been unprofitable with a -47.9% ROI. This represents significant losses for bettors who consistently backed Dallas in this scenario.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Cowboys' 27.3% ATS win rate in this situation is well below the typical 50% expectation for spread betting. Their performance as road favorites following losses has been particularly poor compared to league standards.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.