The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago Bears in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs division opponent, the Chicago Bears are just 9-12-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -18.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +18.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record9-12-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size21 games
ROI-18.2%
Units Won-3.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-3-00.0%-23.6%
20150-2-00.0%-100.0%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20181-0-00.0%+90.9%
20192-1-00.0%+27.3%
20201-0-00.0%+90.9%
20211-2-00.0%-36.4%
20220-2-00.0%-100.0%
20230-2-00.0%-100.0%
20241-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Bears' struggles against division opponents stem from the inherent familiarity and intensity that defines NFC North rivalries. Playing the same teams twice annually creates a chess match where coordinators have extensive film study and understand personnel tendencies, often neutralizing Chicago's strengths while exploiting recurring weaknesses. The Bears have historically relied on defensive schemes that work well against unfamiliar offenses but become predictable when division rivals have months to prepare counter-strategies. Chicago's offensive inconsistency becomes magnified in these heated matchups, where emotional intensity can lead to rushed decisions and penalties that kill drives. The Bears often struggle with situational football in divisional games, particularly in late-game scenarios where their conservative play-calling fails to match the aggression needed against desperate opponents fighting for playoff positioning. The psychological weight of these rivalries also plays a significant role. Bears players and coaches often admit to feeling extra pressure in division games, leading to overthinking and execution errors that don't surface against non-conference opponents where the atmosphere is less charged. Bettors should be particularly cautious backing Chicago as road favorites in division games, where the combination of hostile environments and tactical familiarity creates the perfect storm for disappointing performances. This trend matters most during late-season divisional matchups when playoff implications amplify every strategic disadvantage.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Chicago Bears's ATS record as vs division opponent?

The Chicago Bears have a 9-12-0 ATS record when playing against division opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 42.9% cover rate in divisional matchups.

Is betting on the Chicago Bears as vs division opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Chicago Bears against division opponents has not been profitable, with a -18.2% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing Chicago in these games.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Bears' 42.9% ATS cover rate against division opponents is below the expected 50% break-even point and likely trails the league average. Their -18.2% ROI suggests significantly worse performance than typical divisional betting trends.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.