Chicago Bears Home Favorite Betting Trend

The Bears' struggles as home favorites stem from a franchise caught between outdated identity and modern NFL realities. Chicago has historically built its reputation on defense and grinding out wins, but when installed as favorites at Soldier Field, they face opponents who arrive with nothing to lose and everything to prove against a storied franchise. The psychological weight of expectation often exposes the Bears' offensive limitations, as their conservative approach struggles to generate the explosive plays needed to cover spreads when leading. Soldier Field's notorious conditions amplify these issues, particularly late in the season when weather becomes a factor. While the Bears should theoretically benefit from home-field advantage in harsh conditions, their offensive inconsistency means they often fail to capitalize on opportunities that separate good teams from great ones. The franchise's tendency toward coaching conservatism when ahead further compounds the problem, as they frequently allow opponents to hang around and cover backdoor spreads. The most actionable insight for bettors is recognizing that Chicago's home favorite status often reflects public perception rather than actual superiority. Fading the Bears becomes most valuable when they're favored by more than a field goal at home, particularly against divisional opponents who know their tendencies intimately and arrive motivated to spoil the party.