The data suggests caution when backing the Carolina Panthers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite, the Carolina Panthers are just 7-19-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -48.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +48.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record7-19-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size26 games
ROI-48.6%
Units Won-12.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-4-00.0%-61.8%
20152-2-00.0%-4.5%
20160-2-00.0%-100.0%
20170-1-00.0%-100.0%
20190-1-00.0%-100.0%
20200-4-00.0%-100.0%
20211-2-00.0%-36.4%
20220-1-00.0%-100.0%
20233-0-00.0%+90.9%
20240-2-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Panthers' struggles as home favorites stem from a franchise caught between rebuilding cycles and unrealistic market expectations. Carolina has rarely possessed the consistent offensive firepower or defensive dominance needed to justify laying points, yet oddsmakers and the betting public continue to overvalue their home field advantage at Bank of America Stadium. This creates a classic case of inflated lines driven more by perception than reality. The team's quarterback instability has been particularly damaging in favorite situations, where they're expected to control games and cover spreads. Whether it's been Cam Newton's inconsistency post-injury, Sam Darnold's limitations, or rookie growing pains, Carolina has lacked the reliable signal-caller needed to justify confidence when laying points. Their offensive line struggles compound this issue, making it difficult to establish rhythm against opponents playing loose as underdogs. Carolina's defensive identity, while occasionally formidable, hasn't translated to the dominant home performances that would support consistent favorite status. Teams playing with nothing to lose have found success exploiting the Panthers' tendency to play down to competition levels. This trend matters most early in seasons when optimism is highest and in divisional games where familiarity breeds closer contests than the spread suggests.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Carolina Panthers's ATS record as home favorite?

The Carolina Panthers have a 7-19-0 ATS record as home favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 26.9% of games. This represents one of the worst home favorite ATS performances in the NFL over this period.

Is betting on the Carolina Panthers as home favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Carolina Panthers as home favorites is not profitable, with a -48.6% ROI from 2014-2024. A $100 bet on each game would have resulted in nearly $49 in losses per game on average.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, where home favorites typically cover around 50% of the time. The Panthers' 26.9% cover rate as home favorites ranks among the worst in the NFL over this timeframe.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.