The public often underestimates the Buffalo Bills in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as primetime underdog, the Buffalo Bills hold a record of 32-10-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +45.5% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $19 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record32-10-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size42 games
ROI+45.5%
Units Won+19.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-0-00.0%+90.9%
20153-0-00.0%+90.9%
20161-0-00.0%+90.9%
20173-3-00.0%-4.5%
20181-1-00.0%-4.5%
20195-0-00.0%+90.9%
20202-1-00.0%+27.3%
20212-2-00.0%-4.5%
20223-2-00.0%+14.6%
20235-1-00.0%+59.1%
20246-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Buffalo Bills' exceptional performance as primetime underdogs stems from a perfect storm of psychological and strategic advantages that align with the franchise's blue-collar identity. When cast in the underdog role under the bright lights, the Bills tap into their organizational DNA of resilience and chip-on-shoulder mentality that has defined the franchise through decades of adversity. This psychological edge becomes amplified in primetime settings where the team feeds off proving doubters wrong on a national stage. Josh Allen's gunslinger mentality thrives in these high-pressure situations where conventional game management takes a backseat to aggressive playmaking. The Bills' offensive system, built around Allen's improvisational skills and explosive arm talent, creates mismatches against defensive coordinators who may have over-prepared for a more conservative approach from an underdog. Buffalo's coaching staff has consistently demonstrated superior game-planning when given extra preparation time, often unveiling wrinkles that catch opponents off-guard. The key insight for bettors is recognizing that Buffalo's underdog value increases significantly when they have additional rest or preparation time, as their coaching staff maximizes these advantages. This trend carries the most weight when the Bills are road underdogs in divisional primetime games, where their familiarity with opponents combines with their proven ability to exceed lowered expectations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Buffalo Bills's ATS record as primetime underdog?

The Buffalo Bills have an outstanding 32-10-0 ATS record as primetime underdogs from 2014-2024. This represents a 76.2% ATS win rate over 42 games.

Is betting on the Buffalo Bills as primetime underdog profitable?

Yes, betting on the Buffalo Bills as primetime underdogs has been highly profitable with a 45.5% ROI. This strong return is driven by their exceptional 76.2% ATS success rate in these situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Bills' 76.2% ATS rate as primetime underdogs significantly outperforms the typical 50% league average for ATS betting. Their 45.5% ROI also far exceeds what most teams deliver in underdog situations.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.