Buffalo Bills Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend

The Bills' struggles as large favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between their explosive offensive capabilities and the methodical approach required to cover big numbers. Buffalo's high-octane passing attack, built around Josh Allen's arm talent, naturally creates volatile game scripts where they can build substantial leads quickly, then ease off the accelerator once victory seems secure. This feast-or-famine dynamic works against the steady scoring needed to cover spreads exceeding a touchdown. Buffalo's defensive inconsistencies compound this issue. While capable of dominant performances, their defense has shown vulnerability to sustaining focus against overmatched opponents. Teams facing elimination-level point spreads often play with nothing-to-lose desperation, finding success against a Bills defense that may be looking ahead or playing conservatively to avoid injuries. The psychological element cannot be ignored. Large favorites face immense pressure to validate the betting market's confidence, often leading to tight early play that keeps inferior opponents within striking distance. Allen's aggressive style, while generally an asset, can produce costly turnovers when forcing plays in situations where game management would be more appropriate. This trend carries the most weight in divisional games and late-season matchups where Buffalo has already secured playoff positioning, creating natural letdown spots against motivated underdogs.