The public often underestimates the Buffalo Bills in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Buffalo Bills hold a record of 11-6-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +23.5% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $4 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record11-6-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size17 games
ROI+23.5%
Units Won+4.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20151-0-00.0%+90.9%
20161-0-00.0%+90.9%
20171-2-00.0%-36.4%
20181-0-00.0%+90.9%
20192-0-00.0%+90.9%
20200-1-00.0%-100.0%
20210-1-00.0%-100.0%
20221-2-00.0%-36.4%
20232-0-00.0%+90.9%
20242-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Buffalo Bills' success as large underdogs stems from their organizational culture of resilience and their ability to simplify their approach when facing overwhelming odds. When spotted significant points, Buffalo typically finds itself in situations where expectations are minimal, allowing players to compete freely without the pressure of being favored. This psychological freedom often translates into more aggressive playcalling and risk-taking that can catch superior opponents off-guard. The Bills' defensive identity plays a crucial role in these scenarios. Their ability to generate pressure and create turnovers becomes magnified when they're not expected to win, as opposing offenses may become complacent or overly conservative with large leads. Buffalo's coaching staff has historically excelled at game-planning when they have extra time to prepare, often finding creative ways to exploit matchup advantages that oddsmakers may have overlooked. The franchise's "underdog mentality" runs deep, particularly during their playoff drought years when they consistently played spoiler against more talented rosters. This institutional memory creates a team-wide belief that they can compete with anyone when properly motivated. This trend carries the most weight in divisional games or primetime spots where Buffalo's familiarity with opponents and elevated motivation levels create the perfect storm for backdoor covers or outright upsets.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Buffalo Bills's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?

The Buffalo Bills have an 11-6-0 ATS record when they are large underdogs of +7.5 points or more from 2014-2024. This represents a strong 64.7% ATS win rate in these situations.

Is betting on the Buffalo Bills as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Buffalo Bills as large underdogs has been highly profitable with a 23.5% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite their 0% straight-up win rate in these games, they consistently cover the spread at a high rate.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Bills' 64.7% ATS win rate as large underdogs significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for ATS betting. Their 23.5% ROI also exceeds most profitable betting trends in the NFL.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.