Buffalo Bills As Favorite Betting Trend

The Bills' struggles as favorites stem from a franchise historically unaccustomed to carrying expectations. For decades, Buffalo operated as scrappy underdogs, and this mentality became ingrained in the organization's DNA. When thrust into favorite roles, the team often plays tight and conservative, abandoning the aggressive style that made them successful in the first place. Josh Allen's development trajectory compounds this issue. The young quarterback shows marked differences in his decision-making when facing pressure to perform versus playing with house money. As favorites, Allen tends to force throws and press for big plays rather than taking what defenses give him, leading to costly turnovers that swing both games and spreads. Buffalo's coaching staff also demonstrates a concerning pattern of overthinking game plans when expected to win. They frequently abandon their rushing attack too early and become overly reliant on Allen's arm, making them predictable for opposing defensive coordinators who game-plan specifically to contain their explosive passing offense. Smart bettors should exercise extreme caution when backing Buffalo as road favorites of more than a touchdown, where their psychological disadvantages become most pronounced and the spread inflation typically reaches unsustainable levels.