Buffalo Bills After a Win Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Buffalo Bills in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the Buffalo Bills are just 20-24-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -13.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +13.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2015 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2016 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2017 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2018 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2019 | 4-1-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2020 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2021 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2022 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2023 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2024 | 4-4-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Bills' struggles after victories stem from a combination of emotional letdowns and their offensive identity creating inflated expectations. Buffalo's high-octane passing attack led by Josh Allen often produces explosive wins that capture public attention, leading oddsmakers to overadjust the following week. When the Bills dominate through the air, bettors remember the highlight-reel plays and chase the action, inflating the spread beyond what the team can realistically cover. Buffalo's coaching staff under Sean McDermott tends to emphasize preparation and consistency, but this approach can sometimes lead to conservative game planning after big wins. The team has shown a pattern of playing to their competition's level, particularly when facing inferior opponents following statement victories. Allen's gunslinger mentality, while a strength, can also lead to forcing plays when the team expects another explosive performance. The psychological aspect cannot be ignored either. Young teams like Buffalo have historically struggled with the week-to-week focus required in the NFL, particularly when coming off emotional highs against division rivals or playoff contenders. This trend becomes most critical when the Bills are coming off primetime victories or wins against quality opponents, especially when facing teams with losing records the following week.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Buffalo Bills's ATS record as after a win?
The Buffalo Bills have a 20-24-0 ATS record after a win from 2014-2024, covering the spread in 45.5% of games following victories.
Is betting on the Buffalo Bills as after a win profitable?
No, betting on the Buffalo Bills after a win is not profitable, with a -13.2% ROI indicating consistent losses for bettors over this period.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Bills' 45.5% ATS win rate after victories is below the expected 50% baseline, suggesting they consistently fail to cover inflated point spreads following wins.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.