Baltimore Ravens Home Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Baltimore Ravens in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Baltimore Ravens are just 5-8-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -26.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +26.6%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2016 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2017 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Ravens' struggles as home favorites after losses stem from their identity as a defensive, ground-and-pound team that relies heavily on emotional momentum. When Baltimore suffers a defeat, particularly on the road, they often return home carrying the psychological weight of that setback. The team's defensive-minded culture under John Harbaugh creates high internal expectations, and players frequently press too hard to immediately bounce back, leading to uncharacteristic mistakes and conservative play-calling that fails to cover inflated spreads. Baltimore's rushing attack, typically their bread and butter, becomes predictable when they're favored at home following a loss. Opposing defensive coordinators have extra time to prepare, knowing the Ravens will likely lean on their ground game to establish control. This creates situations where Baltimore controls games but struggles to pull away decisively, especially against divisional opponents who know their tendencies intimately. The franchise's playoff-or-bust mentality amplifies this effect during crucial stretches of the season. Players and coaches feel additional pressure to validate their championship aspirations immediately after disappointments, often resulting in overthinking rather than executing their natural game plan. This trend carries the most weight during the second half of seasons when playoff implications are highest and the Ravens are coming off road losses to quality opponents.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Baltimore Ravens's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?
The Baltimore Ravens have a 5-8-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 38.5% ATS win rate over 13 games in this situation.
Is betting on the Baltimore Ravens as home favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Baltimore Ravens as home favorites after a loss has not been profitable. This trend shows a -26.6% ROI with a 0.0% straight-up win rate, indicating consistent losses for bettors.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly below the expected 50% ATS baseline for any betting situation. The Ravens' 38.5% ATS rate and negative ROI suggest they consistently struggle to cover spreads when favored at home following a loss.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.