Atlanta Falcons vs Non-Conference Opponent Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Atlanta Falcons in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs non-conference opponent, the Atlanta Falcons are just 23-28-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -13.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +13.9%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2016 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2017 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2018 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2019 | 3-5-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2020 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2021 | 5-2-0 | 0.0% | +36.4% |
| 2022 | 3-1-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2023 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2024 | 1-6-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Falcons' struggles against non-conference opponents stem from a combination of unfamiliarity and preparation challenges that consistently work against them. Unlike divisional matchups where teams face each other twice annually and develop detailed scouting reports, non-conference games present unique offensive and defensive schemes that Atlanta's coaching staff has historically struggled to gameplan for effectively. The franchise's tendency to rely heavily on offensive rhythm and timing-based passing attacks becomes particularly vulnerable when facing unfamiliar defensive coordinators who can disguise coverages and pressure packages. Atlanta's defensive inconsistencies become magnified in these cross-conference matchups, where they encounter offensive systems and personnel groupings they rarely see. The team's secondary, which has been a persistent weakness over the past decade, gets exposed by unfamiliar route combinations and play-action concepts that AFC teams deploy differently than their NFC South rivals. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. These games often lack the emotional intensity of division battles, leading to flat performances from a team that thrives on momentum and crowd energy. Smart bettors should be particularly cautious backing Atlanta as favorites against non-conference opponents, especially when the line suggests public perception hasn't caught up to this historical trend. This pattern becomes most critical during interconference games in September and October when rust and unfamiliarity peak.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Atlanta Falcons's ATS record as vs non-conference opponent?
The Atlanta Falcons have a 23-28-0 ATS record when playing against non-conference opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 45.1% ATS win rate over 51 games.
Is betting on the Atlanta Falcons as vs non-conference opponent profitable?
No, betting on the Atlanta Falcons against non-conference opponents has not been profitable, showing a -13.9% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing Atlanta in these matchups.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Falcons' 45.1% ATS win rate against non-conference opponents is below the expected 50% break-even point for profitable betting. This underperformance suggests they consistently fail to cover spreads in interconference games compared to league expectations.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.