Atlanta Falcons Large Underdog (+7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Atlanta Falcons in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Atlanta Falcons hold a record of 19-3-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +64.9% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $14 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2016 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2017 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2018 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2019 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2020 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2021 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2022 | 3-1-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2023 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2024 | 3-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Falcons' exceptional performance as large underdogs stems from their organizational culture of resilience and their offensive system's ability to exploit defensive aggression. When facing significant point spreads, Atlanta typically encounters opponents who've been installed as heavy favorites due to recent dominant performances or playoff positioning. This creates a perfect storm where the Falcons face defenses that may be overly aggressive in trying to cover large numbers, opening up explosive passing opportunities for their traditionally potent aerial attack. Atlanta's coaching staff has historically excelled at game-planning when their backs are against the wall, often simplifying offensive concepts and emphasizing high-percentage plays that can quickly accumulate points. The team's veteran leadership tends to embrace the underdog mentality, playing with the kind of desperation that leads to fourth-down conversions and aggressive red zone approaches that can turn games on their head. The psychological element cannot be understated - teams laying 7.5+ points often play conservatively once they establish leads, allowing Atlanta's offense to methodically chip away at deficits through their trademark short-to-intermediate passing game. This trend holds the most value when Atlanta faces divisional opponents or teams coming off emotional victories, as these scenarios amplify the complacency factor that makes large spreads vulnerable to motivated underdogs.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Atlanta Falcons's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?
The Atlanta Falcons have an outstanding 19-3-0 ATS record when they are large underdogs of +7.5 points or more from 2014-2024. This represents an 86.4% ATS win rate over 22 games in this situation.
Is betting on the Atlanta Falcons as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?
Yes, betting on the Atlanta Falcons as large underdogs has been extremely profitable with a 64.9% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite winning 0% of games straight up in this spot, they have consistently covered the spread at an elite rate.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance significantly outperforms the league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS in any given situation. The Falcons' 86.4% ATS rate as large underdogs is exceptionally high and represents one of the strongest situational trends in the NFL.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.