The data suggests caution when backing the Atlanta Falcons in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the Atlanta Falcons are just 12-32-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -47.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +47.9%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record12-32-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size44 games
ROI-47.9%
Units Won-21.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20150-4-00.0%-100.0%
20160-3-00.0%-100.0%
20170-2-00.0%-100.0%
20182-3-00.0%-23.6%
20191-5-00.0%-68.2%
20202-2-00.0%-4.5%
20214-1-00.0%+52.7%
20222-2-00.0%-4.5%
20230-2-00.0%-100.0%
20241-8-00.0%-78.8%

Why This Trend Exists

The Falcons' struggles as favorites following extended losing streaks reveal a franchise historically ill-equipped to handle the psychological weight of expectations during adversity. When Atlanta enters a favored role after multiple consecutive losses, the team often carries the dual burden of public confidence and internal pressure to perform, creating a perfect storm for underperformance against the spread. This pattern stems from Atlanta's organizational tendency toward inconsistency and their roster construction philosophy that often emphasizes offensive firepower over defensive reliability. When the Falcons hit rough patches, their defensive vulnerabilities become magnified, making them susceptible to keeping games closer than the betting market anticipates. The franchise has also shown a propensity for coaching decisions that prioritize style over substance during pressure situations, leading to games that look competitive on paper but fail to cover inflated spreads. The psychological component cannot be understated – Atlanta teams have historically struggled with maintaining composure when external expectations clash with recent poor performance. This creates value for contrarian bettors willing to fade public perception. This trend carries maximum weight when Atlanta is favored by more than a field goal following a three-game skid, particularly in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds competitive games regardless of recent form.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Atlanta Falcons's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?

The Atlanta Falcons are 12-32-0 ATS (27.3%) when favored after a 3+ game losing streak from 2014-2024. This represents 44 total games where they failed to cover the spread in 32 instances.

Is betting on the Atlanta Falcons as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?

No, betting on the Atlanta Falcons as favorites after 3+ game losing streaks is not profitable, with a -47.9% ROI. This trend has shown consistent losses for bettors over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than typical NFL favorite coverage rates, which generally hover around 50%. The Falcons' 27.3% ATS rate in this situation represents a notable negative trend for the franchise.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.