The data suggests caution when backing the Atlanta Falcons in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Atlanta Falcons are just 2-16-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -78.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +78.8%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record2-16-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size18 games
ROI-78.8%
Units Won-14.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20150-2-00.0%-100.0%
20170-2-00.0%-100.0%
20181-2-00.0%-36.4%
20190-2-00.0%-100.0%
20200-1-00.0%-100.0%
20210-1-00.0%-100.0%
20221-1-00.0%-4.5%
20230-2-00.0%-100.0%
20240-3-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Falcons' abysmal performance as road favorites stems from a franchise culture that has historically struggled with expectations and pressure situations. Atlanta's offensive identity relies heavily on rhythm and timing, particularly in their passing attack, which becomes disrupted when facing hostile road environments where they're expected to control the game. The psychological burden of being favored away from home exposes their tendency to play tight rather than loose, leading to conservative play-calling that contradicts their natural offensive strengths. Atlanta's defensive limitations become magnified in these spots, as road favorites typically need to maintain leads rather than chase points. The Falcons have consistently fielded units that perform better when playing with desperation than when protecting advantages. Their special teams inconsistencies also compound problems when margins are expected to be comfortable, turning routine situations into momentum-shifting disasters. The coaching staff's game management decisions deteriorate under the pressure of meeting elevated expectations on the road. Clock management, fourth-down decisions, and halftime adjustments all suffer when the Falcons are expected to impose their will in unfamiliar territory. This trend carries the most weight in divisional road games and when Atlanta is favored by more than a field goal, where the gap between expectation and execution becomes most pronounced.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Atlanta Falcons's ATS record as away favorite?

The Atlanta Falcons have a 2-16-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 11.1% of games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances in this specific situation across the NFL.

Is betting on the Atlanta Falcons as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Atlanta Falcons as away favorites is not profitable, with a -78.8% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost nearly 79 cents for every dollar wagered on Atlanta in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Falcons' 11.1% cover rate as away favorites represents an extreme negative outlier in NFL betting trends.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.