The data suggests caution when backing the Atlanta Falcons in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a loss, the Atlanta Falcons are just 19-22-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -11.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +11.5%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record19-22-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size41 games
ROI-11.5%
Units Won-4.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20151-5-00.0%-68.2%
20161-3-00.0%-52.3%
20172-1-00.0%+27.3%
20182-1-00.0%+27.3%
20192-3-00.0%-23.6%
20201-2-00.0%-36.4%
20214-1-00.0%+52.7%
20222-1-00.0%+27.3%
20232-1-00.0%+27.3%
20242-3-00.0%-23.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Falcons' struggles after losses stem from their historically volatile organizational culture and tendency toward emotional swings under pressure. Atlanta has consistently been a team that rides momentum more than most NFL franchises, making their response to adversity particularly telling. When facing the psychological weight of a recent defeat, the Falcons often compound their problems with conservative play-calling and a lack of defensive adjustments that opposing coordinators exploit. The franchise's identity crisis over the past decade has manifested most clearly in these bounce-back spots. Whether under Dan Quinn's defensive-minded approach or Arthur Smith's run-heavy philosophy, Atlanta has struggled to find consistent answers when their initial game plan fails. The team's tendency to abandon what works when trailing has created a pattern where losses snowball into coverage failures, as they become predictable in their desperation to generate quick scoring drives. Smart bettors should be particularly wary of backing Atlanta as road favorites after losses, where the combination of hostile environments and recent failure creates the perfect storm for underperformance. This trend carries the most weight in divisional games and primetime spots, where the pressure to respond is amplified and the Falcons' emotional volatility becomes most pronounced.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Atlanta Falcons's ATS record as after a loss?

The Atlanta Falcons have an ATS record of 19-22-0 (46.3%) when playing after a loss from 2014-2024. This means they have failed to cover the spread in 22 of their 41 games following a defeat.

Is betting on the Atlanta Falcons as after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Atlanta Falcons after a loss is not profitable, showing a negative ROI of -11.5%. This poor performance indicates consistent underperformance against the betting line in bounce-back situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Falcons' 46.3% ATS rate after losses is below the typical league average of around 50% for most situational betting trends. Their -11.5% ROI significantly underperforms compared to break-even betting expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.