The data suggests caution when backing the Washington Wizards in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Washington Wizards are just 6-11-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -32.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +32.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record6-11-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size17 games
ROI-32.6%
Units Won-5.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-0-00.0%+90.9%
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20160-1-00.0%-100.0%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20180-1-00.0%-100.0%
20191-1-00.0%-4.5%
20200-1-00.0%-100.0%
20221-2-00.0%-36.4%
20230-3-00.0%-100.0%
20240-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Wizards' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from their historically poor organizational depth and conditioning programs. Washington has consistently ranked among the league's worst teams in bench production, making back-to-back situations particularly taxing when they're expected to cover spreads as favorites. The psychological pressure of being favored at home compounds fatigue issues, as role players who might normally exceed expectations in underdog scenarios instead shrink under elevated expectations. Washington's defensive schemes have traditionally relied on individual athleticism rather than systematic rotations, which breaks down significantly when legs are heavy from the previous night's game. Their offense becomes overly dependent on isolation plays from their primary scorers, creating predictable patterns that opposing coaches easily exploit with fresh preparation time. The team's medical and training staff turnover during much of this period also contributed to suboptimal recovery protocols between games. Bettors should particularly target this spot when the Wizards are laying points against teams with superior depth or when the spread exceeds four points, as fatigue amplifies their tendency to play down to competition. This trend carries the most weight during the middle portion of the season when schedule density peaks and accumulated fatigue becomes most pronounced.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Washington Wizards's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?

The Washington Wizards have gone 6-11-0 against the spread as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 35.3% ATS win rate over 17 total games.

Is betting on the Washington Wizards as home favorite on zero rest profitable?

No, betting on the Washington Wizards as home favorites on zero rest has not been profitable. The strategy shows a -32.6% ROI, indicating significant losses for bettors over this period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the expected 50% break-even rate for ATS betting. The 35.3% ATS win rate and negative ROI suggest the Wizards consistently struggle to cover spreads in this specific situation.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.