The data suggests caution when backing the Utah Jazz in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small favorite (-1 to -3), the Utah Jazz are just 15-17-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -10.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +10.5%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record15-17-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size32 games
ROI-10.5%
Units Won-3.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-1-00.0%+27.3%
20152-1-00.0%+27.3%
20160-1-00.0%-100.0%
20171-3-00.0%-52.3%
20180-2-00.0%-100.0%
20191-2-00.0%-36.4%
20201-2-00.0%-36.4%
20210-1-00.0%-100.0%
20223-3-00.0%-4.5%
20232-0-00.0%+90.9%
20243-1-00.0%+43.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Jazz's struggles as small favorites stem from their historically inconsistent identity and tendency to play down to competition. Utah has often been caught between competing priorities - whether developing young talent during rebuilding phases or pushing for playoff positioning with veteran cores. This internal tension manifests most clearly when they're expected to handle supposedly inferior opponents by narrow margins. Small favorite scenarios typically arise when Utah faces teams with similar records or when they're playing on the road against decent competition. The Jazz have repeatedly shown they lack the killer instinct to separate themselves from mediocre opponents, often getting drawn into slugfests rather than asserting their supposed superiority. Their offensive system, which has fluctuated between ball movement and isolation-heavy approaches depending on personnel, tends to stagnate against teams that can match their energy level. The psychological factor cannot be ignored - Utah players seem to struggle with the pressure of being favored, even slightly. They've historically performed better as underdogs when expectations are lowered and they can play with house money. This trend matters most when Utah is laying small numbers at home against sub-.500 teams or on the road against Western Conference opponents with similar standings.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Utah Jazz's ATS record as small favorite (-1 to -3)?

The Utah Jazz has a 15-17-0 ATS record when favored by 1-3 points from 2014-2024. This translates to a 46.9% ATS win rate in these situations.

Is betting on the Utah Jazz as small favorite (-1 to -3) profitable?

No, betting on the Utah Jazz as small favorites (-1 to -3) is not profitable. The team has produced a -10.5% ROI over this period, meaning bettors would lose money consistently backing them in these spots.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is below the expected 50% ATS rate for any team. The Jazz's 46.9% ATS win rate as small favorites indicates they consistently fail to cover the spread in close games where they're expected to win by a small margin.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.