The data suggests caution when backing the Toronto Raptors in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the Toronto Raptors are just 92-124-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -18.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +18.7%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record92-124-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size216 games
ROI-18.7%
Units Won-40.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20146-11-00.0%-32.6%
201513-12-00.0%-0.7%
20168-11-00.0%-19.6%
201711-13-00.0%-12.5%
20183-11-00.0%-59.1%
20196-7-00.0%-11.9%
202014-14-00.0%-4.5%
20217-10-00.0%-21.4%
20228-13-00.0%-27.3%
202312-10-00.0%+4.1%
20244-12-00.0%-52.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Raptors' struggles as favorites following extended losing streaks stem from a combination of organizational culture and market inefficiencies. Toronto has historically been built around defensive intensity and systematic execution, but these losing streaks often indicate underlying issues with player rotation, injury management, or scheme breakdowns that don't resolve simply because the betting market expects a bounce-back performance. The franchise's tendency to maintain competitive lines despite poor form creates situations where the public backing and inflated spreads don't account for legitimate systemic problems. When the Raptors enter these spots, they're often dealing with confidence issues that manifest in tentative play, particularly on offense where their margin for error has always been thin. The team's reliance on role players stepping up becomes magnified when stars are pressing, creating a cascade effect that extends losing streaks rather than ending them. Sharp bettors should recognize that Toronto's defensive-minded identity means their struggles often run deeper than simple variance, making them vulnerable to teams with offensive firepower who can exploit their compromised schemes. This trend carries the most weight when the Raptors face teams with strong offensive systems or when playing at home where expectations amplify the pressure to perform.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Toronto Raptors's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?

The Toronto Raptors have gone 92-124-0 ATS as favorites after a 3+ game losing streak from 2014-2024. This represents a 42.6% ATS win rate over 216 games.

Is betting on the Toronto Raptors as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?

No, betting on the Raptors as favorites after 3+ game losing streaks has not been profitable. The strategy shows a -18.7% ROI with a 0.0% straight-up win rate.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the typical 50% ATS expectation for any betting scenario. The Raptors' 42.6% ATS rate and negative ROI indicate they consistently fail to cover spreads in this specific situation.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.