The data suggests caution when backing the Sacramento Kings in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the Sacramento Kings are just 16-19-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -12.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +12.7%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record16-19-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size35 games
ROI-12.7%
Units Won-4.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-2-00.0%-36.4%
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20161-1-00.0%-4.5%
20174-2-00.0%+27.3%
20181-0-00.0%+90.9%
20190-1-00.0%-100.0%
20201-3-00.0%-52.3%
20212-3-00.0%-23.6%
20222-2-00.0%-4.5%
20232-2-00.0%-4.5%
20241-2-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Kings' struggles as small underdogs stem from their organizational identity crisis that has persisted through multiple coaching changes and roster overhauls. Sacramento consistently finds itself in games where oddsmakers view them as nearly equal to their opponents, yet they fail to capitalize on these competitive spots. This pattern reflects a team that often lacks the mental fortitude and execution needed in tight contests where every possession matters. Small underdog situations typically favor teams with strong defensive discipline and clutch-time execution, two areas where Sacramento has historically faltered. The Kings tend to play loose and undisciplined basketball when games tighten up, leading to costly turnovers and defensive breakdowns in crucial moments. Their young core often shows inexperience in these pressure-packed scenarios, while veteran leadership has been inconsistent throughout different roster iterations. The franchise's losing culture creates a psychological burden where players press too hard in winnable games rather than trusting their systems. Sacramento's offensive-minded approach, while entertaining, often abandons them in grind-it-out games where defensive stops determine outcomes. Bettors should be particularly wary of backing Sacramento as small underdogs in road games against playoff-caliber teams, where their mental fragility becomes most pronounced and the venue amplifies their execution issues.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sacramento Kings's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?

The Sacramento Kings have a 16-19-0 ATS record as small underdogs (+1 to +3) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 45.7% cover rate over 35 games in this betting situation.

Is betting on the Sacramento Kings as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?

No, betting on the Sacramento Kings as small underdogs (+1 to +3) has not been profitable. The strategy shows a negative -12.7% ROI, meaning bettors would have lost money consistently over this 10-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the expected break-even rate of approximately 52.4% needed to overcome standard sportsbook juice. The Kings' 45.7% cover rate in this spot represents poor value for bettors compared to typical league performance.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.