The data suggests caution when backing the Sacramento Kings in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite, the Sacramento Kings are just 38-60-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -26.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +26.0%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record38-60-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size98 games
ROI-26.0%
Units Won-25.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-4-00.0%-4.5%
20158-6-00.0%+9.1%
20162-6-00.0%-52.3%
20173-6-00.0%-36.4%
20188-5-00.0%+17.5%
20194-5-00.0%-15.2%
20202-8-00.0%-61.8%
20215-3-00.0%+19.3%
20221-7-00.0%-76.1%
20231-7-00.0%-76.1%
20240-3-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Kings' struggles as home favorites stem from a franchise historically plagued by inconsistency and pressure management issues. Sacramento has long been a team that plays better when expectations are lower, thriving in underdog scenarios where they can play loose and aggressive. When installed as favorites at Golden 1 Center, the psychological weight of expectation often translates into tentative play, particularly in clutch moments where their young core has repeatedly faltered. The Kings' offensive system, built around pace and transition opportunities, becomes predictable when opponents gameplan specifically to slow them down - something visiting underdogs are more motivated to do against a favored Sacramento squad. Their defensive inconsistencies become magnified when they're expected to control games, as opponents often find success attacking their perimeter defense and forcing the Kings into uncomfortable half-court sets. Sacramento's roster construction has emphasized offensive talent over defensive stability, creating a team that can score with anyone but struggles to close out games when the margin shrinks. This volatility becomes particularly problematic when laying points, as late-game execution issues frequently turn comfortable leads into nail-biters or worse. This trend matters most when Sacramento faces sub-.500 teams at home, where the spread typically inflates based on perceived talent gaps rather than actual game dynamics.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sacramento Kings's ATS record as home favorite?

The Sacramento Kings have an ATS record of 38-60-0 as home favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 38.8% of games. This represents a significantly poor performance against the betting line when favored at home.

Is betting on the Sacramento Kings as home favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Sacramento Kings as home favorites is not profitable, with a -26.0% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. A $100 bet on every Kings home favorite game would have resulted in a $26 loss per game on average.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the league average, as most teams cover the spread approximately 50% of the time. The Kings' 38.8% ATS rate and -26.0% ROI as home favorites represents one of the worst trends in the NBA during this timeframe.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.