Portland Trail Blazers Small Underdog (+1 to +3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Portland Trail Blazers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the Portland Trail Blazers are just 19-20-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -7.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +7.0%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 2-4-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2016 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2017 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2019 | 4-3-0 | 0.0% | +9.1% |
| 2020 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2021 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2022 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2023 | 3-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2024 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Trail Blazers' struggles as small underdogs stem from their organizational identity crisis during transitional periods. Portland has historically been caught between competing philosophies - trying to remain competitive while developing young talent or managing veteran expectations during roster overhauls. This internal tension manifests most acutely in small underdog spots, where the team should theoretically be motivated but often lacks the cohesive identity needed to exceed modest expectations. Portland's coaching changes and front office turnover have created inconsistent game planning and preparation, particularly evident when facing teams they should compete with closely. The franchise's tendency to overvalue veteran leadership while simultaneously prioritizing youth development creates lineup confusion and unclear roles in crucial moments. Players often seem uncertain about their responsibilities, leading to late-game execution failures that turn covers into losses. The recent improved form suggests potential stabilization under current leadership, but bettors should remain cautious. Portland's small underdog value emerges primarily during periods of clear organizational direction - either full rebuild mode or legitimate playoff pushes. This trend matters most during mid-season stretches when Portland's season trajectory becomes apparent, as clarity of purpose typically correlates with their ability to exceed modest betting expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Portland Trail Blazers's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?
The Portland Trail Blazers have a 19-20-0 ATS record as small underdogs (+1 to +3) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 48.7% ATS win rate in these situations.
Is betting on the Portland Trail Blazers as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?
No, betting on the Portland Trail Blazers as small underdogs has not been profitable, showing a -7.0% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. Despite covering the spread in nearly half their games, the negative return indicates poor value.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Trail Blazers' 48.7% ATS win rate as small underdogs is slightly below the expected 50% baseline and likely trails the league average. The -7.0% ROI suggests they consistently failed to provide betting value in close games where they were slight underdogs.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.