Zion Williamson has hit the over on his rebounds prop exactly half the time in his last 10 games, going 5-5-0 with a 50.0% success rate. His 5.6 average falls 0.8 rebounds short of his typical 6.4 line, creating a slight lean toward the under despite the balanced record.
Expert Analysis
Williamson's rebounding performance over this 10-game stretch reveals a player consistently falling short of market expectations, averaging 5.6 rebounds against a 6.4 line. This 0.8 differential suggests books are still pricing him based on his peak rebounding ability rather than current output. The perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record masks the underlying trend of underperformance relative to the number. Williamson's rebounding has always been volatile due to his unique playing style—he operates more as a perimeter-oriented forward despite his size, often releasing early in transition rather than crashing the offensive glass. His minutes distribution and role within New Orleans' system appear to be limiting his rebounding opportunities compared to traditional power forwards. The -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates the market has been efficiently priced, but the consistent underperformance against the line suggests a systematic overvaluation. Without additional context on matchups, pace, or injury status, the trend points toward continued struggles to reach inflated rebounding totals that don't align with his current role and playing style.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williamson's consistent underperformance against his rebounding line (-0.8 differential) outweighs the balanced 5-5 record. His perimeter-heavy style and role in New Orleans' system limit traditional rebounding opportunities compared to what books expect. Target games where he faces smaller, faster lineups that push pace and reduce half-court rebounding chances. Main risk is a potential role change or increased minutes that could boost his glass-crashing opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zion Williamson's Rebounds prop record last 10 games?
Zion Williamson has gone 5-5-0 over/under on his rebounds prop in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50.0% of overs. He's averaging 5.6 rebounds per game during this stretch, falling short of his typical 6.4 betting line by 0.8 rebounds.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zion Williamson Rebounds last 10 games?
Lean under on Williamson's rebounds props. Despite the balanced 5-5 record, he's consistently averaging 0.8 rebounds below his line at 5.6 per game. His perimeter-oriented playing style limits traditional rebounding opportunities compared to market expectations.
What's Zion Williamson's average Rebounds last 10 games?
Williamson is averaging 5.6 rebounds over his last 10 games, which falls 0.8 rebounds short of his typical 6.4 betting line. This consistent underperformance suggests the market may be overvaluing his current rebounding output based on past performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williamson rebounds unders when facing smaller, pace-heavy lineups that limit half-court rebounding opportunities. His perimeter-focused role makes him most vulnerable to staying under when games feature increased transition play and reduced traditional power forward responsibilities.