Zion Williamson's rebounding props offer exceptional under value with a 65.1% hit rate across 63 games. His 5.56 average falls 0.6 rebounds short of typical lines, generating +24.2% ROI on unders while overs hemorrhage -33.3%. This represents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Zion Williamson's rebounding struggles stem from his unique role in New Orleans' system, where he operates more as a perimeter-oriented forward than a traditional paint presence. Despite his 6'6" frame and athleticism, Williamson averages just 5.56 rebounds per game against lines typically set around 6.15, creating a persistent 0.6 rebound gap that bettors can exploit. The 65.1% under success rate across 63 games isn't a small sample fluke—it reflects fundamental aspects of his game. Williamson's offensive responsibilities often take him away from rebounding position, as he initiates fast breaks and operates in transition rather than crashing the boards. His conditioning and injury management also factor in, as the Pelicans often limit his minutes and physical exertion in areas like rebounding battles. The recent 2-game over streak shouldn't obscure the broader pattern, especially considering his longest under streak reached 9 games. Sportsbooks appear slow to adjust lines downward, possibly influenced by his physical tools rather than actual production. This creates ongoing value for under bettors who recognize that Williamson's skill set and role simply don't translate to consistent rebounding volume at the levels books expect.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 65.1% under success rate and +24.2% ROI represent a sustainable edge rooted in Williamson's playing style and role. Target this prop when lines sit at 6+ rebounds, as the 0.6 average differential provides consistent value. The main risk is potential lineup changes or increased minutes, but his fundamental rebounding limitations make unders the superior long-term play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zion Williamson's Rebounds prop record all games?
Williamson's rebounding props show a 22-41-0 record (34.9% overs) across 63 games, with unders hitting 65.1% of the time. This represents a strong sample size demonstrating consistent under value in the betting market.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zion Williamson Rebounds all games?
Bet the under on Williamson's rebounding props. The 65.1% under success rate and +24.2% ROI provide clear mathematical edges, while his 5.56 average consistently falls short of typical 6+ lines set by sportsbooks.
What's Zion Williamson's average Rebounds all games?
Williamson averages 5.56 rebounds per game, falling 0.6 rebounds short of the typical 6.15 line. This persistent gap creates ongoing value for under bettors who recognize the disconnect between expectations and reality.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williamson rebounding unders when lines are set at 6+ rebounds, particularly after over streaks when books might inflate numbers. His role and playing style create the most consistent value in standard game situations.