Zion Williamson's assist props have been consistently undervalued, hitting the under in 60% of his last 10 games while generating a profitable 14.6% ROI for under bettors. Despite averaging 5.4 assists against a typical 5.0 line, the overs have been a money-losing proposition at -23.6% ROI, creating a clear edge on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Zion Williamson's playmaking role that the market hasn't fully adjusted to. While his 5.4 assist average appears to support betting overs against the standard 5.0 line, the reality is more nuanced. Williamson's assist production has been inconsistent enough that the under has cashed in 6 of 10 games, suggesting his floor is lower than his average indicates. This pattern often emerges when a player's usage shifts or when team dynamics change mid-season. The Pelicans' offensive system may be limiting Williamson's consistent playmaking opportunities, particularly if they're utilizing him more as a finisher than a facilitator. The -23.6% ROI on overs is particularly telling, indicating that even when Williamson does exceed his assist total, the wins haven't been frequent enough to overcome the juice. The current two-game under streak aligns with this broader trend, and without evidence of systematic changes to his role or the team's offensive approach, this pattern appears sustainable. The market's persistence in setting lines that favor overs despite the underlying performance suggests continued value on the under side.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with positive 14.6% ROI creates a mathematical edge that outweighs the modest +0.4 average differential. Target games where Williamson faces defensive-minded opponents or when the Pelicans are expected to play at a slower pace, as these conditions typically suppress assist totals. The main risk is a potential role change that increases his playmaking responsibilities, but current trends suggest the under remains the sharper play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zion Williamson's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Zion Williamson has gone 4-6-0 over/under on his assist props in his last 10 games, hitting the under 60% of the time. This translates to a 40% over rate, significantly below the break-even point needed for profitable over betting.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zion Williamson Assists last 10 games?
Bet the under on Zion Williamson's assist props. The 60% under rate combined with a positive 14.6% ROI on unders creates a clear mathematical edge, while overs have lost money at a -23.6% clip despite his solid 5.4 average.
What's Zion Williamson's average Assists last 10 games?
Zion Williamson is averaging 5.4 assists over his last 10 games, which is 0.4 assists above the typical 5.0 line. However, this modest edge hasn't translated to profitable over betting due to inconsistent game-to-game production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Zion Williamson assist unders when New Orleans faces strong defensive teams or plays in slower-paced games. These conditions typically limit his playmaking opportunities and align with the established trend of underwhelming assist totals relative to market expectations.