Zach Collins has delivered exceptional value on assists props, hitting overs at a 60% clip (12-8-0) while averaging 3.65 assists against a 3.5 line. The +14.6% ROI on overs reflects consistent playmaking production that the market continues to undervalue.
Expert Analysis
Collins has emerged as a legitimate facilitator in San Antonio's system, with his 3.65 assists per game consistently exceeding the standard 3.5 line. The 60% over rate isn't just statistical noise—it reflects his expanded role as a connector in the Spurs' ball movement offense. His size advantage at 6'11" allows him to see over defenses and make passes that traditional centers cannot, while his basketball IQ translates to finding open teammates in transition and half-court sets. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his playmaking capabilities, creating sustained value. However, the relatively modest 0.1 differential between his average and the line suggests this edge could narrow as sportsbooks recalibrate. The five-game over streak demonstrates his consistency, though the recent single over suggests some natural regression. Collins' assist production appears most sustainable when the Spurs play uptempo basketball, as his outlet passing and court vision create additional opportunities. The lack of significant under streaks (longest just two games) indicates reliable floor performance, making overs the preferred side until the market corrects.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Collins' 60% over rate and positive ROI reflect genuine playmaking value that the market hasn't fully recognized. His role as a facilitating big man creates consistent opportunities to exceed 3.5 assists, particularly in uptempo games. The main risk is market adjustment—this edge may narrow as sportsbooks catch up to his expanded passing role.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Collins's Assists prop record all games?
Collins has gone over his assists prop in 12 of 20 games (60%) while staying under 8 times with no pushes. This 12-8-0 record has generated a +14.6% ROI on overs and -23.6% on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Collins Assists all games?
Bet the over on Collins assists props. His 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI indicate consistent market undervaluation of his playmaking abilities, making overs the preferred side until sportsbooks adjust.
What's Zach Collins's average Assists all games?
Collins averages 3.65 assists per game compared to the typical 3.5 line, creating a modest but consistent 0.1 edge. This small differential has translated to reliable over performance across 20 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Collins assists overs in uptempo games where his outlet passing and transition vision create additional opportunities. His size advantage and court awareness make him most effective when the pace favors ball movement.