Victor Wembanyama's steals prop presents a modest edge toward overs with a 53.8% hit rate (28-24-0) and positive 2.8% ROI. His 1.37 average significantly exceeds the typical 1.08 line, creating a +0.3 differential. Despite a current 5-game under streak, the overall trend favors backing overs.
Expert Analysis
Wembanyama's steals production reflects his unique physical profile and defensive instincts as a 7'4" rim protector with guard-like anticipation skills. The 1.37 average against a 1.08 line reveals consistent market undervaluation of his perimeter disruption ability. His length allows him to deflect passes in passing lanes that shorter players cannot reach, while his basketball IQ enables him to anticipate offensive actions effectively. The 53.8% over rate demonstrates sustainable production rather than variance-driven results. However, the current 5-game under streak warrants attention, potentially indicating either regression toward his seasonal mean or temporary adjustment by opponents. The modest 2.8% ROI suggests the market has partially corrected, making line shopping crucial. Wembanyama's steals often correlate with San Antonio's pace and opponent offensive style, with higher totals against turnover-prone teams. The lack of dramatic splits suggests consistent performance across various game situations, though his rookie season adaptation process could create some volatility as teams develop specific game plans to limit his impact.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +0.3 differential between Wembanyama's 1.37 average and typical 1.08 lines creates legitimate value despite the current under streak. His physical advantages and defensive instincts suggest sustainable production above market expectations. Target games against pace-heavy opponents or teams with higher turnover rates. The main risk lies in potential market correction as books adjust to his consistent over performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Steals Prop Lines
Compare Victor Wembanyama props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Victor Wembanyama's Steals prop record all games?
Wembanyama's steals prop shows a 28-24-0 record (53.8% overs) across 52 games from October 2023 to October 2024. This translates to hitting the over 28 times while going under 24 times, with no pushes recorded.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Victor Wembanyama Steals all games?
Lean toward betting over on Wembanyama's steals props. His 1.37 average significantly exceeds the typical 1.08 line, creating consistent value. The 53.8% over rate and positive ROI support this approach despite the current under streak.
What's Victor Wembanyama's average Steals all games?
Wembanyama averages 1.37 steals per game, which is 0.3 steals above the typical 1.08 line. This substantial differential of nearly 30% above market expectations demonstrates consistent outperformance and suggests regular betting value on overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wembanyama steals overs against high-pace teams or turnover-prone opponents where his length and anticipation create maximum disruption opportunities. Avoid during his current under streak unless the line drops significantly below his 1.37 seasonal average.