Tyus Jones has hit the over on his three-pointers made prop just 44.8% of the time in home games, posting a concerning 13-16-0 record against the 1.5 line. Despite averaging 1.66 makes per game at Capital One Arena, the under has delivered consistent value with a +5.3% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Tyus Jones's home three-point shooting that contradicts surface-level expectations. While Jones averages 1.66 made threes per home game—comfortably above the standard 1.5 line—the under has cashed 55.2% of the time with solid profitability. This disconnect reveals the volatility inherent in low-volume three-point shooting. Jones typically attempts 3-4 threes per game, meaning he needs to shoot roughly 50% from deep to consistently clear 1.5 makes. Home court advantage hasn't translated to more reliable shooting for the veteran point guard, who often prioritizes facilitating over scoring. The current three-game under streak aligns with historical patterns showing Jones experiences extended cold stretches that drag his consistency below the betting line. His role as Washington's primary distributor means shot attempts can vary significantly based on game flow and teammate availability. The key insight isn't that Jones shoots poorly at home—he's actually quite capable—but rather that the variance in a small sample size creates exploitable betting opportunities. When a player hovers around 1.6-1.7 makes per game, the under becomes mathematically favorable despite the modest differential, especially when factoring in the juice on most books.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 55.2% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge despite Jones averaging above the line. The current three-game under streak suggests continued regression toward his true shooting mean. Target this prop when Jones faces defensive-minded opponents or in potential blowout scenarios where his minutes might be limited. Main risk is a hot shooting night that can quickly flip the narrative.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyus Jones's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Jones has gone 13-16-0 on his three-pointers made prop in home games, hitting the over just 44.8% of the time. The under has been profitable at +5.3% ROI despite his 1.66 average per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyus Jones 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean under on Jones's three-pointers made props at home. The 55.2% under rate and positive ROI create a mathematical edge, especially during his current three-game under streak.
What's Tyus Jones's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Jones averages 1.66 three-pointers made per home game, which is 0.16 above the standard 1.5 line. However, this modest differential hasn't translated to consistent over results.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jones's three-point unders during defensive matchups or potential blowouts where his facilitating role takes precedence. The current three-game under streak presents optimal timing for continuation bets.