Tyus Jones has been a consistent under performer on his points props, going 3-7 over his last 10 games with a brutal 30% over rate. His 8.2 points per game average sits nearly three full points below typical lines around 11.0, creating significant value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose scoring output has been systematically overvalued by the market. Jones's 8.2 points per game average represents a massive 2.8-point gap below standard lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for his reduced offensive role in Washington's evolving rotation. This isn't just a cold streak - it reflects fundamental changes in how the Wizards deploy their veteran point guard. The 33.6% ROI on unders demonstrates the market's persistent overvaluation, while the -42.7% ROI on overs shows the futility of betting his scoring props to go high. Jones's role has clearly shifted toward facilitating rather than scoring, evidenced by his consistent failure to reach double digits in seven of ten games. The four-game under streak that dominated this sample wasn't an anomaly but rather the natural result of a player whose primary value comes through assists and game management. Washington's pace and offensive distribution patterns have limited Jones's scoring opportunities, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors who recognize this role shift before the betting market fully adjusts.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 30% over rate combined with a nearly three-point gap between performance and typical lines creates exceptional value. Jones's facilitator-first role in Washington's system has fundamentally changed his scoring profile, making unders the clear play. The primary risk is a blowout game where garbage time inflates his numbers, but his consistent role limitations make this unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 9.5 | 12.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 11.5 | 7.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 10.5 | 21.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 10.5 | 2.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 8.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 11.5 | 3.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 12.5 | 5.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyus Jones's Points prop record last 10 games?
Tyus Jones went 3-7 on his points props over his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of overs. He averaged 8.2 points per game against lines typically set around 11.0, creating a significant 2.8-point differential favoring unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyus Jones Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Tyus Jones points props. His 30% over rate and 2.8-point gap below typical lines create clear value. The 33.6% ROI on unders versus -42.7% on overs makes this decision straightforward for profitable betting.
What's Tyus Jones's average Points last 10 games?
Tyus Jones averaged 8.2 points over his last 10 games, sitting 2.8 points below the typical 11.0 line. This massive gap reflects his reduced scoring role in Washington's system and creates significant value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jones points unders when lines are set at 10.5 or higher, especially in games where Washington projects to control pace. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his scoring beyond his typical role limitations.