Tyus Jones shows a clear edge toward overs on one day rest, hitting at a 54.1% clip (20-17) across 37 games with a meaningful +0.6 assist differential above his typical line. The positive ROI on overs (+3.2%) against negative under returns (-12.3%) creates a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The 54.1% over rate on one day rest reflects Jones's ability to maintain his playmaking efficiency without the fatigue that accumulates during back-to-back stretches. As Washington's primary facilitator, Jones benefits from the rhythm and timing that comes with adequate recovery time, allowing him to execute his read-and-react passing game more effectively. The +0.6 differential above his season average suggests oddsmakers may be undervaluing his consistency in this rest scenario. The 37-game sample provides solid statistical foundation, though the modest 54.1% hit rate indicates this isn't a dominant edge. Jones's role as the Wizards' floor general becomes more pronounced with proper rest, as he can push pace and create more opportunities in transition. The positive ROI on overs (+3.2%) compared to the significant negative return on unders (-12.3%) demonstrates market inefficiency. However, the recent one-game under streak and the fact that both his longest over and under streaks reached five games shows volatility remains. Washington's offensive system relies heavily on Jones's distribution, making rest a crucial factor in his assist production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 54.1% over rate and +0.6 differential above his typical line create a measurable edge on one day rest. Jones's role as Washington's primary playmaker becomes more effective with proper recovery, leading to increased assist opportunities. The main risk is the modest edge size and recent under streak, but the positive ROI differential supports targeting overs in this spot.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 16.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 8.5 | 11.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 7.5 | 15.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 7.5 | 16.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 7.5 | 9.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 7.5 | 9.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyus Jones's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Jones has gone over his assists prop 20 times and under 17 times on one day rest for a 54.1% over rate. This creates a slight but measurable edge toward overs across 37 games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyus Jones Assists 1 day rest?
Lean over on Jones's assists with one day rest. The 54.1% over rate, +0.6 differential above his line, and positive ROI on overs create a medium-confidence edge in this rest scenario.
What's Tyus Jones's average Assists 1 day rest?
Jones averages 7.27 assists on one day rest compared to his typical 6.72 line, creating a +0.6 differential. This above-average production with proper rest drives the over tendency.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jones's assists overs specifically on one day rest when he can maintain his playmaking rhythm. Avoid back-to-back situations where fatigue may impact his court vision and passing accuracy.