Tyrese Maxey's three-point production shows marginal weakness on one day of rest, hitting overs just 47.5% of the time across 40 games. The Philadelphia guard averages 3.05 threes versus a typical 2.95 line, but the -9.3% ROI on overs signals consistent market overvaluation. This creates a lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Tyrese Maxey's three-point struggles on one day of rest reveal a pattern that contradicts conventional rest-equals-better-shooting wisdom. Across 40 games, Maxey has managed just a 47.5% over rate, falling short of the break-even 52.4% threshold needed for profitability. The numbers suggest fatigue isn't the primary factor limiting his long-range accuracy—instead, game flow and defensive attention appear more influential. When Philadelphia has standard rest, opponents likely game-plan more thoroughly for Maxey's explosive shooting, leading to tighter coverage and fewer clean looks. The 3.05 average versus 2.95 typical lines creates a deceptive 0.1 edge that hasn't translated to betting success, as the -9.3% ROI on overs demonstrates. Most telling is the market's persistent overvaluation—books continue setting lines that favor unders, suggesting recreational money consistently inflates Maxey's three-point totals. The current three-game over streak represents variance rather than a shift in underlying conditions, especially considering Maxey endured a nine-game under streak during this sample. Without pace or usage rate changes to drive more attempts, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The combination of a 47.5% over rate and negative ROI on overs creates a profitable contrarian opportunity on Tyrese Maxey three-point unders. Target games where the line sits at 3.0 or higher, as market inflation remains consistent. The primary risk is Maxey's elite shooting talent potentially breaking through defensive schemes, but the 40-game sample provides sufficient confidence in this edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Tyrese Maxey's three-point prop record on one day of rest stands at 19-21-0 over/under across 40 games, translating to a 47.5% over rate. This falls short of the break-even point, with overs producing a -9.3% ROI while unders show slight profitability at +0.2%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Lean under on Tyrese Maxey's three-point props with one day of rest. The 47.5% over rate and negative ROI on overs create a consistent edge for under bettors, particularly when lines reach 3.0 or higher where market inflation is most pronounced.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Tyrese Maxey averages 3.05 three-pointers made on one day of rest, compared to typical market lines around 2.95. While this 0.1 differential appears favorable for overs, the actual betting results show this edge is largely illusory due to line inflation and defensive adjustments.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyrese Maxey three-point unders when Philadelphia has exactly one day of rest and the line sits at 3.0 or higher. Avoid betting during extended over or under streaks, as variance can temporarily override the underlying trend in small samples.