Tyrese Maxey's steals prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 44.0% of overs across 25 games with a -16.0% ROI on overs versus +6.9% on unders. His 1.12 average creates a modest +0.3 edge over the typical 0.82 line, but the consistency favors under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Tyrese Maxey's home steal numbers reveal a fascinating disconnect between his actual production and market expectations. At 1.12 steals per home game, he's performing above the standard 0.82 line, yet overs cash at a disappointing 44.0% rate. This suggests books are setting inflated lines that account for his playmaking reputation rather than his actual defensive metrics. The negative ROI on overs (-16.0%) indicates consistent overvaluation, while under bettors enjoy steady profits at +6.9%. Maxey's role as Philadelphia's primary ball-handler often keeps him focused on offensive responsibilities rather than gambling for steals, particularly at home where the 76ers control pace and don't need to press defensively. His steal production lacks the volatility that creates betting value on overs - he's more likely to record 0-2 steals consistently than explode for 4-5 in a single game. The current two-game over streak represents variance rather than a shift in approach, especially given his longer four-game under streak earlier in the sample. Home court advantage typically reduces steal opportunities as teams play more controlled basketball, and Maxey's 1.12 average, while solid, rarely produces the spike performances that justify inflated lines.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 56% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge against consistently inflated lines. Target games where Maxey faces disciplined offensive teams that limit transition opportunities and turnover-prone possessions. Primary risk is his recent hot streak continuing, but regression toward his season-long pattern favors disciplined under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's Steals prop record home games?
Tyrese Maxey's steals prop record in home games stands at 11-14-0 over/under across 25 games, hitting overs just 44.0% of the time. This translates to a -16.0% ROI on overs while under bets have generated +6.9% returns for disciplined bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey Steals home games?
Bet under on Tyrese Maxey's steals in home games. The 56% under rate and positive ROI create a sustainable edge against inflated lines. His 1.12 home average consistently falls short of bookmaker expectations, making unders the profitable long-term play.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average Steals home games?
Tyrese Maxey averages 1.12 steals per home game, creating a +0.3 differential above the typical 0.82 line. However, this modest edge doesn't translate to over success, as his production lacks the volatility needed to consistently exceed inflated bookmaker numbers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyrese Maxey steals unders when Philadelphia faces disciplined offensive teams that limit turnovers and transition opportunities. Home games against methodical opponents create the lowest steal environments, maximizing the edge against consistently overvalued lines from oddsmakers.