Tyrese Maxey's steal prop shows compelling value in away games, hitting the over at a 58.3% clip across 24 games with a +0.34 differential above the typical 0.83 line. The 11.4% ROI on overs signals a sustainable edge worth targeting.
Expert Analysis
The steal prop market consistently undervalues Tyrese Maxey's defensive activity on the road, where he averages 1.17 steals against lines typically set at 0.83. This 40.9% premium reflects several factors working in his favor. Away games often feature faster pace and more transition opportunities, where Maxey's quick hands and anticipation skills shine brightest. His role as Philadelphia's primary ball handler forces him into passing lanes more frequently, creating natural steal opportunities that books haven't fully priced in. The 58.3% over rate across 24 games represents a meaningful sample size, suggesting this isn't random variance but a legitimate market inefficiency. Maxey's defensive engagement tends to increase in hostile environments, where his competitive nature drives more aggressive play. The consistent +0.34 differential indicates books are slow to adjust, possibly because steal props receive less sharp action than scoring markets. However, regression risk exists if Philadelphia's pace slows or if Maxey's minutes decrease due to blowouts. The key sustainability factor is his consistent role and usage, which remains stable regardless of venue. This trend appears most exploitable when Philadelphia faces up-tempo opponents or teams prone to turnovers, amplifying the steal opportunities that make this prop profitable.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.3% hit rate and +11.4% ROI create a clear edge, but the limited sample size and steal prop volatility prevent higher conviction. Target this when Philadelphia faces pace-up spots or turnover-prone opponents, where Maxey's defensive activity typically peaks. Main risk is the inherent randomness in defensive counting stats.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's Steals prop record away games?
Tyrese Maxey hits the over on his steal prop in 58.3% of away games, going 14-10-0 across 24 road contests. This represents a strong edge over the typical 52.4% break-even rate needed for standard -110 odds.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey Steals away games?
Bet the over on Tyrese Maxey's steal prop in away games. The 58.3% hit rate and +11.4% ROI create consistent value, especially against up-tempo opponents where his defensive activity peaks most significantly.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average Steals away games?
Tyrese Maxey averages 1.17 steals in away games, significantly above the typical 0.83 line. This +0.34 differential represents a 40.9% premium that books consistently fail to price accurately in road contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyrese Maxey steal overs in away games against fast-paced teams or turnover-prone opponents. These conditions maximize his defensive opportunities and create the highest probability scenarios for prop success.